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[转载]美国国家学术出版社(NAP)出版专著探讨海啸探测与预测技术

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jlinwhoi 发表于 2011-8-12 12:29:13 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 jlinwhoi 于 2011-8-12 12:58 编辑

近日,美国国家学术出版社(NAP)出版了一本题为《海啸预警与防范:美国海啸项目与备灾工作评估》的专著,在第四章“海啸探测与预测”中总结和评估了美国两大海啸预警中心(TWC)的探测和预测能力,并为其提供了相关建议。TWC主要负责监控地震活动与海平面变化,以探测海啸的发生并发布预警,同时还要避免不必要的撤离行动。下面将对该章进行简要介绍:

(1)地震监测网

监测地震活动和海平面变化的全球网络对海啸预警而言至关重要。由美国地质勘探局(USGS)和美国国家科学基金会(NSF)共建的全球地震监测网(GSN)目前拥有150多个分布在全球各地的数字化地震台站,能通过其数据管理系统提供实时、开放的数据访问,对由地震引发的海啸足以进行精确、可靠的预警。然而,GSN的绝大多数地震台站并不由TWC负责运营,使其在未来有可能失去部分关键数据源。此外,TWC用于处理地震数据的算法能够对地震位置、深度和强度进行快速分析,进行海啸预警,但其方法不够精确。因此,报告建议TWC应①加强地震台站的建设;②研究并测试其他地震数据处理算法;③采用新技术。

(2)大洋海啸测报系统与沿海海平面测量仪

海啸探测与预测需要利用沿海海平面测量仪与大洋海啸测报系统(Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis,DART)提供的大洋传感器对海啸从两方面进行实时观测。两者的使用极大提高了TWC发布精确即时海啸信息的能力。此外,大洋传感器可以为科研人员测试和改善海啸发生、传播及洪水模型提供关键数据。

海平面监测网络已经在海啸探测、预测、模型开发方面展现出了价值,但其覆盖范围仍然不够。而且相对DART台站四年的设计期而言,其一年多的寿命仍然嫌短。展望未来,报告指出DART台站和沿海海平面测量仪的数量、位置和优先程度不应维持不变,而是应根据相关经费、设备寿命、维修成本、模型改进、新技术开发、国际援助的增减等进行轻微而持续的调整。相关建议包括:①评估网络覆盖率;②确定台站优先级别;③进行数据流风险评估并确保数据可用性;④降低成本并优化其配置;⑤对海平面监测网络进行监管。

此外,TWC已于近期开始开展海啸预测建模,有望在未来改善海啸预测工作。

张娟 编译自
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12628.html
检索日期:2011年3月30日

(转载来源:http://lib.semi.ac.cn:8080/download/2011/5/20/am/092526.pdf
 楼主| jlinwhoi 发表于 2011-8-12 12:49:50 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 jlinwhoi 于 2011-8-12 13:07 编辑

美国伍兹霍尔海洋研究所的林间老师是以上报告第四章“海啸探测与预测”的主要作者之一。该报告由美国国家研究委员会/国家科学院任命的海啸预警系统专家委员会经过两年的调查后撰写(共296页)。林老师为该委员会的委员之一。该委员会的全体成员如下:

Appendix L  Committee and Staff Biographies

COMMITTEE  

John A. Orcutt (Chair) is a distinguished professor of geophysics at the University of California, San Diego.  Dr. Orcutt earned a B.S. in mathematics and physics from the U.S. Naval Academy, a M.Sc. in physical chemistry as a Fulbright Scholar from the University of Liverpool, and a Ph.D. in geophysics from the University of California, San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography.  His research focuses on cyberinfrastructure and geophysical applications; geophysical studies of ocean seismo-acoustics including rough seafloor scattering, acoustic-elastic interactions, and the use of small arrays; structure of the elastic earth using seismology, synthetic seismograms, and geophysical inverse theory; internal structure of ocean spreading centers; genesis of the oceanic lithosphere; and nuclear test-ban verification methods.  Dr. Orcutt is a past president of the American Geophysical Union and a Secretary of the Navy/Chief of Naval Operations Oceanography Chair.  He is a member of the American Philosophical Society and served briefly as Interim President of the Ocean Drilling Program in 2000.  Dr. Orcutt is a former member of the Ocean Studies Board and has served on numerous NRC committees, including the OSB’s Committee on Exploration of the Seas.  

Martha R. Grabowski (Vice-chair) is McDevitt Associate Chair of Information Systems, Chair of the Business Administration Department, professor and director of the Information Systems program at Le Moyne College in Syracuse, New York as well as Research Professor in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. Dr. Grabowski earned a MBA, a MS in Engineering and a Ph.D. in management and information systems from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and a B.S. from the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy. A licensed former merchant officer and retired LCDR in the U.S. Naval Reserve, her research focuses the impact of technology in safety-critical systems, risk analysis and risk mitigation in large-scale systems, the role of human and organizational error in high consequence settings, and financial cybersecurity in complex, heterogeneous data environments. A member of the American Bureau of Shipping, Dr. Grabowski is a former chair of the NRC’s Marine Board, a former member of the NRC’s standing Committee on Human Factors, and has served on numerous NRC committees. She is currently chairing the Committee on Naval Engineering in the 21st Century and chaired the Committee Evaluating Shipboard Display of Automated Identification Systems. She received the Lifetime National Associate Award from the NRC in 2003.   

Brian Atwater is a geologist employed by the U.S. Geological Survey and based at the University of Washington.  Dr. Atwater earned a Ph.D. in geology from the University of Delaware.  Having used geology as a long-term advisory of earthquakes and tsunamis in the Cascadia region of western North America, he is now trying to make this strategy helpful to developing countries.  He also seeks to mentor scientists in assessing tsunami hazards on the centennial and millennial timescales of great-earthquake recurrence.  These overeseas efforts now include a UNESCO project at the Makran subduction zone and a fulbright in Indonesia.  Dr. Atwater is exploring earthquake geology in the British Virgin Islands to help guide the Nuclear Regulatory Commission on tsunami hazards of the U.S. Atlantic coast.  Dr. Atwater is a member of the National Academy of Sciences.  

Ann Bostrom is Professor and Associate Dean of Research at the Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs of the University of Washington. Dr. Bostrom earned a B.A. from the University of Washington, a M.B.A. from Western Washington University, and a Ph.D. in policy analysis from Carnegie Mellon University. She joined the Evans School faculty in 2007. Dr. Bostrom has research interests in risk perception, communication and management, and in environmental policy and decision making under uncertainty. Her research focuses on mental models of hazardous processes (how people understand and make decisions about risks). Dr. Bostrom co-directed the Decision Risk and Management Science Program at NSF from 1999-2001. Dr. Bostrom is risk communication area or associate editor for Risk Analysis, the Journal of Risk Research, and Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, and a Fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis. She has authored or contributed to numerous publications, including Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach, and Risk Assessment, Modeling and Decision Support: Strategic Directions, as well as NRC and EPA Science Advisory Board and Board of Scientific Counselor reports.  

George Crawford is the former Washington State Earthquake Program Manager and has more than 16 years of multi-program design and coordination of local, state, national and international seismic and geologic programs in collaboration with the USGS, NOAA, FEMA and state, national, international and private organizations.  George served as the Washington State representative to the US National Tsunami Hazard Program, Western States Seismic Policy Council Tsunami Committee Chair, Washington State/Local Tsunami Workgroup Chair, Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup Board of Director, and the NEMA representative to the ANSS National Steering Committee.  George co-developed the All-Hazard Alert Broadcasting (AHAB) Radio that is deployed in US states and internationally, and advises on tsunami community communication issues globally.  He has worked extensively with coastal Native American Tribes to link science to Tribal Oral History, and created the “Run to High Ground” video.  He has represented the US in international forums and the Washington State Tsunami Program has become a mitigation model nationally and internationally for at-risk tsunami communities.  In retirement, he continues to support USAID and UNDP in Indian Ocean country tsunami missions, collaborate with NOAA/PMEL to develop the Train-the Trainer Program and Community-based Education Program in Washington State, assist in the University of Washington Certificate Program in “Tsunami Science & Preparedness,” and lead contractor in developing a national Tsunami Awareness Course for the National Disaster Preparedness Training Centre at the University of Hawaii.   He has written papers on tsunami communication and dissemination, preparedness and mitigation and continues to collaborate in tsunami research.  

Richard Eisner is Visiting Professor at the Research Center for Disaster Reduction Systems (DRS), Disaster Prevention Research Institute at Kyoto University. Prior to joining DRS, he worked for 23 years as the coastal regional administrator for the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, where he was responsible for the State’s disaster response in the San Francisco Bay Region and north coast counties. He also served as manager for the California Integrated Seismic Network’s and the state’s Tsunami and Earthquake Programs. Prior to that appointment, Mr. Eisner served as the founding director of the Bay Area Regional Earthquake Preparedness Project, providing planning and technical assistance to promote and support earthquake preparedness and hazard mitigation by local governments and businesses throughout the San Francisco Bay Region. In 2007, he received the Lifetime Achievement Award by the Western States Seismic Policy Council. Mr. Eisner recently served on the NRC Panel on Solid-Earth Hazards, Resources, and Dynamics.  

Jian Lin is a senior scientist and Henry Bryant Bigelow Chair for Excellence in Oceanography at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.  He earned his Ph.D. in geophysics from Brown University.  His research focuses on Earth's lithosphere processes that lead to catastrophic events of earthquakes, underwater volcanism, and tsunamis.  Dr. Lin has conducted extensive research on earthquake stress interaction and triggering in California and elsewhere in the world.  He has led and participated in numerous oceanographic expeditions to the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans to investigate mid-ocean ridge volcanism, deep-sea hydrothermal vents, underwater earthquakes, and tsunamis.  He is recently conducting two areas of tsunami research: paleo-seismological dating of tsunamis and mega-earthquakes and modeling tsunami sources in the Atlantic.  Dr. Lin is a past chairman of the InterRidge International Science Program.  He is a fellow of the Geological Society of America and American Association for the Advancement of Science.  

Douglas S. Luther is a professor in the Department of Oceanography at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii.  Dr. Luther received his B.S. in geophysics and electrical engineering from Massachusetts Institution of Technology and a Ph.D. in Oceanography from Massachusetts Institution of Technology and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program.  His expertise is in circulation variability and dynamics; mesoscale fluctuations; waves in the ocean; flow-topography interactions.  He is a Senior Fellow, Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Hawaii at Manoa.  Dr. Luther is also an Associate Editor, Journal of Physical Oceanography.      

Hugh B. Milburn is retired from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and is now an independent consultant.  Mr. Milburn worked at NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory for 22 years, last as a supervisory ocean engineer.  He earned an MSE in ocean engineering from the University of Washington.  His interests include the development of moored systems to serve research and operational requirements of global scale measurements and observation with a focus on materials, sensors, data telemetry, and deployment methodologies.  Mr. Milburn is also involved in the development of seafloor observatories utilizing advanced communications for data acquisition and desktop control.  He lead the team that developed the NOAA Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) system.  In 2005, he received the Department of Commerce’s Gold Medal for research and development leading to the creation of a tsunami forecasting capability.  

Dennis Mileti is a professor emeritus in the Department of Sociology and a research scientist in the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado. Dr. Mileti was Director of the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado at Boulder which is the nation's national repository and clearinghouse for social science research on natural hazards and disasters, and is currently also a researcher at the Department of Homeland Security's START Center of the University of Maryland at College Park. Dr. Mileti earned a Ph.D. in sociology from the University of Colorado.  His research focuses on environmental sociology, complex organizations, research methods, and collective behavior.  In 2007, he earned the Outstanding Civilian Service Medal from the U.S. Department of the Army.  Dr. Mileti has served on previous NRC committees, including the Committee on Natural Disasters.  

Emile Okal is a professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Northwestern University.  Dr. Okal earned a Ph.D. in geophysics from the California Institute of Technology.  He is currently researching tsunami generation, risk, and warning using post-event field surveys and modeling.  Dr. Okal’s general research interests include seismology, structure of the Earth’s interior, properties of seismic sources, marine geosciences, volcanism, and underwater acoustics.   

Costas Synolakis is a professor of civil, environmental, aerospace, and mechanical engineering and the director of the Tsunami Research Center at the University of Southern California.  Dr. Synolakis earned a Ph.D. in civil engineering from the California Institute of Technology.  His research focuses on tsunami run up, computer tomography, vibration, isolation of art objects, and earthquake hazards reduction.   

Nathan Wood is a research geographer at the U.S. Geological Survey. Dr. Wood earned a Ph.D. in geography from Oregon State University. His research focuses on characterizing and communicating societal vulnerability to natural hazards, with emphasis on tsunamis in the Pacific Northwest. He develops and applies geospatial modeling and mapping techniques, as well as collaborative community-based processes, to better understand how individuals, communities, and coupled human-environment systems are vulnerable to tsunamis.  

Harry Yeh is the Miles Lowell and Margaret Watt Edwards Distinguished Chair in Engineering and a professor of coastal and ocean engineering at Oregon State University.  Dr. Yeh earned a Ph.D. in civil engineering from the University of California, Berkeley.  His research focuses on environmental fluid mechanics, ocean and coastal wave phenomena, flow-structure interactions, tsunami induced scour, wind turbulence, structure control (tuned liquid dampers), physical processes in lakes and oceans, and tsunami hazard mitigation.

(来源:http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12628.html
SunZhen 发表于 2011-8-12 18:17:12 | 显示全部楼层
wow,这么快就写出了这么全面的书,中国这个离两次大海啸这么近的国家竟然没有一点动静,真惭愧。
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